“ 关税摩擦再起，美债告急，美元信用面临重估，全球资本正悄然告别“美国中心论”。黄金开车，避险逻辑重构，资产配置正经历一场深层洗牌。Trade tensions rise again as U.S. debt crises loom and the dollar loses favor, global capital is quietly moving away from the "America-centric" model. The shift signals a restructuring of risk-averse strategies and a profound reshuffling in asset allocation.”
就在上周，一场关税宽限政策，引爆了美国股市强劲反弹——标普500涨5.7%，纳指暴涨7.29% （一度暴涨超12%，创下历史第二大单日涨幅），创下自2023年11月以来的最佳周。但热烈表象下，隐藏着一场深层次的全球博弈。Last week, a temporary tariff reprieve sparked a powerful market rally—S&P 500 surged 5.7%, Nasdaq jumped 7.29%, marking the strongest week since November 2023. But beneath the surface of this exuberance lies a deeper shift—a global power game reshaping the flow of capital.
除中国外的关税缓一手
Tariff relief for all but China
特朗普宣布对多数国家关税暂停90天，为谈判提供空间，引发市场短线乐观情绪。但中国被排除在外，美方在一周内多次上调对中国商品的关税，最高达145%，而中方迅速将对美关税升至125%。这一轮升级，首次将人民币定盘价调至7.20以下，触发全球汇市剧烈波动。离岸人民币更是逼近历史低点，这不仅是一场关税摩擦，更是一场货币、利率、信心的多维博弈。Trump announced a 90-day tariff suspension for most countries, triggering short-term market optimism. But China was excluded. The U.S. raised tariffs on Chinese goods multiple times—up to 145%—and China retaliated to 125%. This escalation pushed the RMB fixing below 7.20, with offshore yuan nearing record lows, sparking turmoil in global currency markets. This is no longer just a trade spat, but a multidimensional battle of currency, rates, and confidence.Picture credit: zerohedge, Bloomberg
美元指数跌至2023年7月以来最低，而欧洲股市也因贸易忧虑收跌1.92%。市场虽短线修复，但波动性与结构性风险加剧，本轮反弹更像是一场高风险博弈下的“技术性回光返照”。The dollar index fell to its lowest since July 2023, while European equities dropped 1.92% on trade concerns. espite the short-term rebound, rising volatility and deepening structural risks suggest this rally is more a technical flash of strength amid a high-risk standoff than a true recovery.美元还稳吗，全球开始“去美元化”？
Dollar Under Review: Is Global De-Dollarization Underway?
以往市场恐慌时，资金会涌入美元避险，但这次恰恰相反——美元指数跌至2023年7月以来新低。与此同时，黄金创下自2020年疫情以来最大单周涨幅，成为新的避风港。这透露一个信号：美元正在失去其“全球定锚”地位。In past market panics, capital typically fled to the dollar. But this time, the script flipped—the dollar index fell to its lowest since July 2023, while gold posted its biggest weekly gain since the 2020 pandemic, emerging as the new safe haven. The message is clear: the dollar is losing its role as the world’s anchor.
美债抛售，全球对“美式信用”发出质疑
The Myth of American Creditworthiness Faces a New Test
美债也没能逃过这场风暴。通胀预期升温使美债价格大幅下挫，避险资金纷纷撤离，开始集中卖出长久期国债，并转向短端工具，释放出明显的流动性紧张与信任危机。与此同时，美债收益率被动拉高，30年期美债收益率一周暴涨50个基点，创下1982年以来最大涨幅。Rising inflation expectations triggered a sell-off in long-duration bonds, as investors fled to the short end—exposing growing liquidity strains and a deepening trust deficit. The 30-year Treasury yield surged 50 basis points in a week, the sharpest rise since 1982.
甚至在信用层面，美国的CDS（违约掉期）已高于法国、西班牙，逼近意大利和希腊，交易员直言：“Sell America正在成为全球共识。”Worse still, U.S. credit default swaps (CDS) now trade above France and Spain, nearing levels seen in Italy and Greece. As one trader put it: "Selling America is becoming a global consensus."
政策催化，资金流向高波动品种
Flows Chase High-Beta Plays Amid Policy Tailwinds
2025年4月9日上午9:37，特朗普在社交平台上发布的一条高调信息：“THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! ”——“现在是买入的绝佳时机！”出现正值中美贸易摩擦升级、市场巨震的一周。
此类“喊多”常见于政策转折期，意在提振信心、引导抄底。虽未指明买入对象，但市场普遍解读为：看多美股，尤其是科技股、成长股、甚至比特币等高Beta资产。正如高盛交易员所言：“现在是金子在开车，而不是股票。” 黄金虽因避险而暴涨，创下自疫情以来最大周涨幅，但此类推文明显偏向激活风险偏好，而非保守配置。On April 9, 2025, Trump posted: “This is a great time to buy!”—a clear sentiment push amid U.S.-China tensions. Markets took it as a signal to chase risk assets—tech, growth stocks, even crypto—not gold. As Goldman put it: “Right now, gold is driving—not stocks.”资本巨头动向：巴菲特抄底日本，达利欧预言AI革命
Titans of Capital: Japan for Value, AI for Disruption
巴菲特加码“借日元买日股”策略：伯克希尔以1.35亿美元利息成本发行900亿日元债券，用于增持三菱、三井等五大商社，持股比例升至9.8%，总市值达235亿美元。凭借低估值日股（市盈率不足10倍）+日元贬值对冲，预计2025年股息收入将达8.12亿美元。
达利欧警告：美国正陷入“内部撕裂”，AI将重塑全球权力格局。他指出，美国因贫富差距与价值观冲突，已陷“不可调和的内部撕裂”。同时，AI革命的颠覆性超越印刷术与工业革命，中美技术竞赛进入关键五年，美国正落后中国。Buffett bets bigger on Japan, using cheap yen debt to lift stakes in five trading giants to 9.8%. Low valuations + weak yen = $812M in expected 2025 dividends.Dalio warns: The U.S. faces internal breakdown, while AI is shifting global power. China now leads as tech rivalry enters a pivotal five-year stretch.
专家视角：中国经济的确定性
China’s Economic Clarity—Through the Eyes of Experts
市场关注流动性调控与政策走向。反观A股，在汇金、国新增持ETF及央行释放流动性信号支持下，上证重返3100点，展现韧性。中国10年期国债收益率降至2.5%。张斌，中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）高级研究员，前IMF经济学家认为，中国具备市场化竞争、规模效应与政策空间（赤字率仅4%、通胀温和），基本面稳固、内需复苏可期。A股估值处于全球洼地，吸引外资加仓。当前应以稳住基本盘、扩大开放、强化科技自主为核心策略，提升长期竞争力。
Markets are watching China’s liquidity and policy direction. With ETF support from Huijin and central SOEs, the Shanghai Composite rebounded to 3,100; the 10-year bond yield dropped to 2.5%.Zhang Bin (CF40, ex-IMF) sees strong fundamentals, ample policy space, and recovering domestic demand. A-shares are undervalued globally. The focus: stabilize the base, open up, and boost tech autonomy.
变局中的生存法则
Rules of survival in changing times
市场规则正在重构，博弈转向“耐力”与政策韧性对决。中国以产业升级、扩大内需应对外压，对美出口占比已从2018年19.2%降至2024年14.7%，间接出口链亦受波及。全球资本正重新评估“美国资产的系统性风险”，释放明确的信号：风险在转移，配置逻辑也必须进化。投资者应聚焦“硬资产+非美市场”多元避险，同时把握科技与内需主线。短期关注关税冲击与东南亚替代潮，中长期胜负取决于AI、高端制造与政策支持。看清结构性趋势，才能在动荡中占得先机。在历史洪流中，唯主动应变者胜，你准备好了吗？
The global game is now a test of endurance. China responds with upgrades and domestic demand, as U.S. export share falls to 14.7%.
Capital is rethinking U.S. assets—risk is rotating, and so should your portfolio. Focus on hard assets, non-U.S. markets, and structural tech trends. The cycle has turned. Are you ready to move with it?
本次讨论：“如果你现在主要资产是美股+美元理财，这波关税+债市波动，对你有什么影响？” 扫码入群了解详细内容：Holding U.S. stocks or dollar-based assets? How will the latest tariffs and bond market turmoil affect you? Scan to join the group for full insights. See the trend. Avoid the traps. Rethink global assets with a capital-first lens.“看得懂趋势，躲得开风险”——资本视角下的全球资产新格局
关税摩擦升级 ，美元与美债信用告急，这是结构性变局、财富转移的开始。在接下来的内容中，我们将持续拆解全球资产风向、政策趋势与配置路径，陪你穿越不确定性。Tariffs rise, trust falls. The dollar and U.S. bonds are losing their anchor — signaling not just volatility, but a structural shift in global wealth. Join us as we decode the evolving asset landscape, policy pivots, and strategic paths ahead — and help you stay grounded in a shifting world.With rich experience, Sirmione Consulting Group China-based team provide market analysis and insights, assist you from virtual market presence, build your China business, establish partnership for you to accelerate sales and expansion, eventually achieve your sustainable growth in China.Business, content and media cooperation, please contact:
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