世界新格局下的投资趋势及策略

“2024 is a pivotal year in which the global landscape being reshaped. We aim to unveil the latest insights & forecasts to help investors see the light through the clouds and navigate the potential opportunities within the ever-changing economic environment. 2024是全球格局被重塑的关键之年，我们旨在揭示最新的见解和预测，以帮助投资者和企业家们拨云见日、驾驭不断变化的经济背景中的潜在机遇”

数据来源Source from: IMF, Bloomberg

According to the latest forecast by The Economist: As alliances become tighter and different blocs gradually form, the world economy from 2024 to 2028 will become more fragmented and regionalized. The resurgence of industrial policies (including sanctions and new incentive measures) will lead companies to adopt less efficient supply chains, exacerbate trade tensions in strategic industries, and make it difficult for them to compete in the global market. 据经济学人最新预测：随着结盟趋于紧密和不同集团逐步形成，2024-28年世界经济将更为碎片化和区域化。产业政策的回归（包括制裁和新的激励措施）将促使企业采用更低效的供应链，加剧战略行业的贸易紧张局势，并使其难以在全球市场竞争。

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As the geopolitical environment being regarded as one of the greatest risks facing investors today, the current downturns in the stock market and industrial production, along with rising unemployment rates, seem to indicate that we are entering the latter stages of the economic cycle. Employment market research shows that in 2024, several large Western corporations have implemented massive layoffs in response to market and technological changes. Among them, UBS expects global layoffs to exceed 30,000 people, Google's restructuring of its finance team affects employees both domestically and internationally, Tesla has cut over 14,000 jobs, and Amazon has made more than 27,000 job cuts across various departments. Similarly, IBM, Sony, Nike, and Cisco have also announced layoffs. In Europe, SAP has cut 8,000 jobs to support its transition to the cloud, Citibank and Deutsche Bank also announced trim existing staffs. 伴随着地缘政治环境被视为当前投资者面临的最大风险之一，目前股市、工业生产的下滑以及失业率的上升情况似乎预示着我们正在进入经济周期的后期。就业市场研究显示，2024年，多家欧美大公司因应市场和技术变化，实施了大规模裁员。其中，瑞银预计全球裁员超3万人，谷歌重组财务团队影响国内外员工，特斯拉裁员超14,000人，亚马逊在多部门裁员超过27,000人。同样，IBM、Sony、Nike、Cisco等也宣布裁员。在欧洲，SAP裁减8000名员工支持其云化转型，花旗和德意志银行等也宣布裁员。

美林投资时钟

资料来源：tradingview.com

Zilch, a payment service provider based in London, has become the fastest financial technology firm in Europe to reach unicorn status in terms of valuation. Since its launch in 2020, by the end of 2023, the company's sales reached $3 billion. According to the latest Bloomberg report, the company is planning to go public in 2025. With the flourishing vertical of insurance, cryptocurrencies, and blockchain, FinTech now plays a key role in financing activities in 2024. 伦敦的一家支付服务提供商公司Zilch 作为欧洲地区获得独角兽平台估值最快的金融科技企业，在 2020 年推出后截至2023年底，销售额达到30亿美元，据彭博社最新报道，该公司即将进行IPO。从保险、加密数字货币和区块链繁荣的垂直领域来看，金融科技现在作为一项融资活动在2024年发挥着关键作用。

The above research indicates that despite the instabilities faced globally and the rapid changes in market demand, technological advancements and innovations will continue to drive the development of the global economy. Developments in fields such as artificial intelligence, blockchain, and biotechnology will transform industrial patterns, creating new business opportunities and jobs. 以上研究表明，尽管全球面临的不稳定性和市场需求的快速变化，技术进步和创新将继续推动全球经济的发展。人工智能、区块链、生物技术等领域的发展将改变产业格局，创造新的商机和就业。

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Morgan Stanley report that China's economy has had a strong start in the first quarter of the year, with the economy expected to achieve the official target of around 5% growth in the first half of the year. Financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have raised their growth forecasts for China for 2024. Despite a general downturn in global stock markets, the Chinese stock market has shown relatively strong performance after a slump, due to new policies issued by the State Council, known as the 'National Nine New Guidelines’. These policies mainly involve strengthening cash dividend policies for listed companies, protecting the rights of investors, especially small and medium investors, and promoting high-quality development of the capital market. This indicates that China's new era priorities have shifted from production & efficiency to consumption & welfare protection, enhancing regulation & risk prevention. 摩根士丹利经济学家表示，中国经济今年第1季开局良好，前2季经济有望实现官方设定的5%左右经济增速目标。高盛和摩根士丹利等金融机构上调了对中国2024年的增长预测。尽管全球股市普遍下跌，中国股市在经历低谷后却因国务院发布的新政策“国九条”，而显示出相对的强劲表现。这些政策主要涉及加强上市公司的现金分红政策，保护投资者特别是中小投资者的权益，并推动资本市场的高质量发展。这表明中国的新时代重点已经从生产和效率转向消费和福利保护、加强监管与风险防范。

数据来源Source from: xiangshuai finance

With the government's stimulus measures, the Chinese economy is expected to maintain growth through ups and downs. Bloomberg Economics forecasts that by 2026, the high-tech industry will account for 19% of China's GDP, becoming a crucial pillar of economic growth, while the GDP contribution from the real estate sector is expected to decline. China is focusing on high-quality development, particularly supporting fields such as IT, big data, and AI. For every additional yuan in high-tech product output, there is an estimated 1.3 yuan increase in economic demand. With policy support, both the stock market and fixed asset investment in the high-tech sector are showing growth. Despite challenges in international trade, China's global market share in the high-tech sector continues to increase. Recently, ten Chinese departments jointly issued 'Several Measures' aimed at optimizing the environment for foreign institutional investments in domestic technology companies. These measures simplify the investment approval process, provide financing support, enhance exchange and cooperation, and improve the investment exit mechanisms. Additionally, tax incentive procedures will be improved to attract more foreign capital, supporting domestic technological innovation and industrial upgrading. 随着政府的刺激政策，中国经济将在起伏中保持增长。彭博经济研究预计到2026年，高科技行业将占中国GDP的19%，成为经济增长的重要支柱，而房地产行业的GDP贡献则预计会下降。中国正专注于高质量发展，尤其支持IT、大数据、人工智能等领域，每增加1元高科技产品产出，可带动经济需求增加1.3元。在政策支持下，高科技行业股市和固定资产投资均显示增长。尽管国际贸易面临挑战，中国在高科技领域的全球市场份额仍在增长。近日，中国十部门联合发布旨在优化境外机构投资境内科技企业环境的《若干措施》，以简化投资审批流程、提供融资支持、加强交流合作，并完善投资退出机制。此外，还将改善税收优惠程序，以吸引更多境外资本，支持国内科技创新和产业升级。

数据来源Source from：Bloomberg彭博研究

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Facing multiple challenges such as global debt issues, geopolitical conflicts, potential economic crises in Europe, new technological transformations, and high prices of oil & gold, what is left in the market for quality investors? Regardless of how the world changes, maintaining a focus undistracted by short-term disturbances, rather than doing nothing or speculating blindly, enables a better grasp of market dynamics and wiser investment decisions. As Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, advocated for a long-term investment perspective: the short-term market is influenced by irrational factors, while the long-term reflects the true value of businesses. Specifically, in the short term, according to the 2024 Q2 global investment outlook released by top wealth management firms such as BlackRock and J.P. Morgan, the Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates by mid-2024, with most central banks worldwide likely to follow. In terms of fixed-income assets, there remains a positive outlook for fixed-income assets in the private market, with a continued preference for short-term bonds. Investors need to maintain a flexible portfolio and actively manage macroeconomic risks. 面临多重挑战，如全球债务问题、地缘冲突、欧洲潜在的经济危机、新的技术变革、石油与黄金价格的高企等，市场为优质投资者还剩下了什么？不管世界如何变化，相比起躺平或是盲目投机，秉持不被短期的干扰分散注意力的心态，才能更好地把握市场动态，做出更为明智的投资决策。正如“价值投资之父”本杰明·格雷厄姆倡导长期投资视角：短期市场受非理性影响，而长期则反映企业真实价值。具体来看，短期内，根据 BlackRock 集团 及J.P. Morgan等顶级财富管理机构发布的 2024第二季度全球投资展望，预计2024 年美联储或将从年中开始降息，全球大多数央行亦将降息，在固定收益资产方面，仍看好私募市场的固定收益资产，同时继续偏好短期债券。投资者需要保持灵活的投资组合，并主动管理宏观风险。

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