Insights on Trends in the New Economy，Focus on China Market
洞见新经济时代市场趋势和机遇-聚焦中国
According to the latest forecasts from IMF, the global economy is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2024. The US is projected to grow by 2.7%, with a slight decrease to 1.9% in 2025. The Eurozone is expected to grow by 0.8% in 2024, increasing to 1.5% in 2025. China's growth rate is forecasted to be 4.6% in 2024, with a slight decline to 4.1% in 2025. UNCTAD warns of potential risks to the global economy, including the impact of geopolitical conflicts on trade, and the challenges posed by climate change, which will create uncertainties for the future. EIU predicts an average annual global real GDP growth rate of 2.8% over the next five years(Below 3% of the 2010s). Green transformation and technological change will be the main trends shaping the global economic outlook. 根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）等的最新预测，2024年全球经济将增长3.2%。美国预计增长2.7%，2025年可能会略降至1.9%。欧元区2024年将增长0.8%，2025年提高至1.5%。中国2024年的增长率为4.6%，2025年可能稍微下降到4.1%。贸易和发展组织（UNCTAD）提醒全球经济面临的潜在风险，包括俄乌等地缘冲突对贸易的影响、气候变化带来的挑战等因素将对未来产生不确定影响。而经济学人（EIU）则预计未来五年全球实际GDP平均年增长率为2.8%（低于2010年代的3%），绿色转型和技术变革将成为未来塑造全球经济前景的主要发展趋势。
As the global economy gradually recovers from the pandemic, emerging technologies represented by artificial intelligence (AI) are rapidly infiltrating and revolutionizing various industries with their groundbreaking innovations. How can investors seize opportunities in this new economic cycle to achieve sustainable returns? By analyzing the performance of major economies and industries in the first half of 2024, especially the development prospects of the Chinese market, and examining stocks, real estate, and government bonds, we provide you with a clear investment and operation panorama. This will help you grasp forward-looking information in a volatile environment and achieve ideal wealth growth. 随着全球经济从疫情中逐渐苏醒，以人工智能（AI）为代表的新兴技术以其革命性的创新，正在快速渗透并革新各行各业。投资者如何才能在这新一轮的经济周期中抓住机遇，实现可持续的收益？我们通过对2024上半年各主要经济体及行业的表现，特别是中国市场的发展前景，股票、房地产以及国债等的解析，为您描绘一幅清晰的投资及运营全景图。助您在复杂多变的环境中掌握前瞻性的信息，实现理想的财富增值。
Overview of the global market and leading companies trends
According to reports, Apple is set to reach an agreement with OpenAI to integrate ChatGPT into iPhones, enhancing the AI capabilities of iOS devices. OpenAI will unveil a more powerful real-time AI voice assistant, which could significantly improve Apple's Siri. With approximately 2.2 billion active iOS devices worldwide, this deal provides a substantial distribution opportunity for OpenAI. 据报道，苹果将与OpenAI达成协议，将ChatGPT集成到iPhone中，增强iOS设备的AI功能。OpenAI将揭晓一个更强大的实时AI语音助手，这可能显著改进苹果的Siri。全球约22亿活跃的iOS设备使这笔交易为OpenAI提供了巨大的分销机会。
The above trends indicate that the technology and AI sectors are experiencing rapid development, driven by substantial funding and increasing market demand, which are fueling innovation and product development. The combination of clean energy and AI underscores the importance of sustainable development, while the integration of AI with consumer electronics demonstrates the broad prospects for technological applications. 以上趋势表明，科技和AI领域正经历快速发展，巨额融资和市场需求的增加推动了创新和产品的发展。清洁能源与AI的结合表明了可持续发展的重要性，而AI与消费电子产品的结合则展示了技术应用的广泛前景。
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Overview of the global AI and GenAI startup landscape
全球AI和GenAI初创企业格局概述
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Analysis of key trends in the Chinese market
中国市场重点趋势分析
The impact of AI technology AI技术的影响: According to the latest market data and forecasts, the global AI market is expected to reach $16 trillion by 2030. The Chinese market is driven by open-source small models and technological innovations. It is predicted that AI applications will see a large-scale outbreak bringing significant business opportunities, reaching $60 billion by 2025. The market size is expected to grow rapidly in the coming years. 根据最新市场数据与预测，全球AI市场规模将于2030年达到1.6万亿美元。中国市场受开源小模型和技术革新驱动，预测AI应用将在2025年大规模爆发，带来巨大的商业机会，达到600亿美元, 在未来几年内其市场规模将迅速增长。
The stock market 股票市场：According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter of 2024, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, industrial output increased by 6.1%, and cross-border e-commerce trade volume increased by 9.6%. These figures attracted approximately 100-200 billion RMB of foreign investment inflows into the A-share market, mainly concentrated in the technology, new energy, consumer goods, and financial services sectors. As of May 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 3.83% since the beginning of the year, with notable performance seen in industries such as oil and gas, gold, biotechnology, software, and renewable energy. Data from the National Energy Association indicates that in the first four months of 2024, China's installed solar capacity increased by 50% compared to the same period in 2023. In 2023, China installed 217 gigawatts of solar photovoltaics, surpassing the total historical installations in the US. 国家统计局数据显示，2024年第一季度，中国经济GDP同比增长5.3%，工业产出增长6.1%，跨境电子商务贸易额增长9.6%。这些数据为A股市场吸引了约1000-2000亿人民币的外资流入，主要集中在科技、新能源、消费品以及金融服务领域。截至2024年5月，上证指数自年初以来上升了3.83%，油气、黄金、生物技术、软件和可再生能源是表现突出的行业。国家能源协会数据表明，2024年前4个月，中国的太阳能装机容量比2023年的增加了50%。中国在2023年安装了217吉瓦的太阳能光伏，这比美国整个历史上的安装量还要多。
JPMorgan Chase expects a greater push on the consumer side 摩根大通预计消费端需要更大推动力
投资策略与建议
Given the backdrop of global economic recovery and technological advancements, we recommend sticking to long-term strategies, maintaining cash reserves for volatility, and adopting a balanced approach to wealth management. 全球经济复苏和技术进步的大背景下，我们建议坚持长期策略，保持现金储备应对波动，并采用平衡的财富管理方法。
1、The focus of investment lies in the entire supply chain (materials, infrastructure, applications), seeking undervalued companies投资的关注点在整个供应链（材料、基础设施、应用），寻找被低估的公司: For example, leading companies in the technology and new energy industries (such as Tencent, Alibaba, CATL, BYD, etc.) have enormous development potential. Companies that emphasize innovation and technological accumulation also have significant growth potential in the waves of future economic recovery and technological advancement. In particular, the commercial prospects of edge-side small models are an important direction for medium to long-term investment. Investors need to understand the changes in the development cycle of AI technology and possess long-term vision and patience. 例如科技和新能源行业的龙头企业（如腾讯、阿里巴巴、宁德时代、比亚迪等）发展潜力巨大，而那些注重创新和技术积累的企业，在未来经济复苏和科技进步的浪潮中，亦具有显著的增长潜力。特别是边缘端小模型的商业化前景，是中长期投资的重要方向。投资者需了解AI技术发展周期变化并具备长期眼光和耐心。
2、Diversified Investment Portfolio 多元化投资组合：diversified investments can effectively reduce single-market risks. In addition to investing in technology companies with innovative capabilities and AI applications to achieve higher returns, investors can also pay attention to developments in cryptocurrency markets and emerging markets: the US digital currency market has experienced rapid development recently. On May 23, the SEC approved an Ethereum ETF, with net inflows of Bitcoin spot ETF totaling $250 million, and JPMorgan Chase predicts that an Ethereum spot ETF will go online before November. Emerging markets experienced some volatility at the beginning of 2024, but the MSCI index rose by 2.4% in the first quarter. Emerging market stocks are considered one of the most undervalued asset classes globally. Looking ahead, policy improvements and global monetary easing policies continue to provide investment potential for emerging market stocks and bonds. 分散投资能够有效降低单一市场风险。除了投资具有创新能力和AI应用的科技企业将获得较高回报，投资者还可以关注加密市场和新兴市场动态：近期美国数字货币市场发展迅猛，5月23日，SEC批准了以太坊ETF，比特币现货ETF净流入总额达2.5亿美元，摩根大通预测现货以太坊ETF将在11月前上线。新兴市场在2024年初经历了一定的波动，但MSCI指数在第一季度上涨了2.4%。新兴市场股票被认为是全球最被低估的资产类别之一，展望未来，政策改进和全球货币宽松政策使新兴市场股票和债务仍具有投资潜力。
3、Risk Awareness关注风险：The tense atmosphere surrounding the North American elections and the Middle East, coupled with China's regulatory challenges and the pace of its economic recovery, could impact the markets. Recently, Goldman Sachs released a list of the top 50 largest short positions held by hedge funds, with Tesla leading the list. Other top ten positions include well-known companies such as ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Costco. Concurrently, Wall Street analysts have cautioned against significant risks in Nvidia's stock price surge, foreseeing a potential 20% downturn in the future. This reflects investment banks' cautious stance on these companies' future prospects, possibly due to factors like overvaluation, policy risks, and market competition, underscoring the importance of strategic planning for investors. For risk-averse investors, appealing low-risk options like money market funds, bond funds, and index funds may also be worth considering. 北美大选和中东地区的紧张局势，中国面临监管收紧和经济复苏节奏的挑战都可能对市场产生影响。最近，高盛公布了50个最大的对冲基金空头名单，其中特斯拉空头头寸居首，其他前十名包括埃克森美孚、雪佛龙、Costco等知名公司。同时，华尔街分析师警告称，英伟达股价的涨势可能存在巨大风险，未来或将暴跌20%。这反映了投行对这些公司未来前景的谨慎态度，可能因估值过高、政策风险和市场竞争等因素而卖空，这对投资者制定策略至关重要。对稳健型投资者来说，还可以考虑货币基金、债券基金及指数型基金等有吸引力的低风险选择。
IMF关于全球通胀预测
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